Originally published at: On the Dangers of Big COVID – Quillette
Since initial reports of the coronavirus outbreak in late 2019, America has witnessed a rapid and unprecedented transformation within nearly every aspect of mainstream society. At work, many Americans settled into their new daily routines of working from home, hunched over computer screens for hours of caffeine-supported Zoom calls frequently followed by app-delivered box dinners.…
Originally published at: On the Dangers of Big COVID – Quillette
In normal conditions, many of us have stood in the queues at shops and supermarkets and become irritated with the lengthy conversations which sometimes occur between the cashier and customer, raging at the several minutes of our life which will we will never get back- but I don’t, because one of the first proper jobs I did was working as a small branch keyholder in one of the small two-man branches which used to dot the high streets of the Britain, before they were all shut in belt-tightening, profit-maximising exercises and converted into bistros and small shops.
Many of the customers were elderly, interspersed with the occasional small business dropping off its daily or weekly takings. And for the former, a conservation with the person behind the till might be one of the few points of human contact in the course of their entire week, a highlight to be looked forward to for days, like peering out of the window eagerly awaiting the arrival of the postie, the paper or the milk, so you could have an impromptu conversation with someone you knew at least loosely.
And it’s not just the childless elderly who find themselves atomised and alone. In many formerly industrial towns across the UK, and in the North in particular, there is a deep sadness to people’s eyes. They grew up in a time where most people in a town worked for one of only a handful of employers, and their parents and grandparents were only a few doors down the street each way, ever ready to pop round for a cup of tea and a chat, readily available to babysit the kids if a night out down the local pub, social club or working men’s club was planned.
Now their own children have long since moved hundreds of miles away in pursuit of jobs, they live such hectic lives they can’t stop for more than a few minutes when phoned and visits from grandkids are limited and dutifully restricted to a few special occasions each year. Even before the pandemic, much of social fabric which previous generations had relied upon was unravelling before our eyes, the young perpetually anxiety-ridden and depressed- no doubt caused by trading the vicarious thrill of the like button on social media for the handful of true friends which are really more essential and necessary to maintaining sanity.
During lockdown, if one was fortunate to live in a small village or a street where there was least at some semblance of community spirit generated through the local pub and cornershop, you might have noticed the frequency of miserable older man in mourning over the temporary closure of their local watering holes- on your daily ration of exercise which the government allowed.
And that’s the point of all this- we didn’t ask whether the old or elderly wanted protection, we simply assumed the responsibility, through the dreadful mechanism of daily death figures. We didn’t ask them whether they wanted to eke out much of their slender few remaining years in isolated misery instead of taking the chance of going out with both a bang and a whimper. We didn’t have the appetite to reflect on the abject misery we were causing, acting instead to salve our own consciences through swift and decisive action.
The elderly and dementia-befuddled dying alone, hurt and confused by the absence of their cherished family in those last slowly dimming days and weeks. Their only comfort plastic-clad strangers and a muffled tear-filled phone call. Lonely funerals which suggests a plenitude of national miserliness, instead of the often joyful reflective mourning of a community coming together to celebrate a life.
I was lucky. I saw the pandemic coming from miles away, before most were even aware of a problem through our public health officials. I was the beneficiary of digital knowledge tree which gave me access to in-person experts every bit as knowledgeable as government advisors. My family was fully saturated by Vitamin D long before more than a handful of cases were detected in the UK. My freezers and shelves were fully stocked in anticipation of the inevitable emptying of supermarket shelves. I had seen the local supermarket in the next village run out of bread, milk and eggs too many Christmases with a few centimetres of snow, to not know what was coming.
I was lucky. Within weeks of the first lockdown, my aunt was popping over on almost a daily basis, her dog in tow. We would drive down to the local boat dyke in separate cars with separate dogs for hour long circuits of idyllic footpaths and fields. She frequently borrowed masks from my pre-ordered stock. Like many smart cookies during those early days she had noticed that our community shop had the luxury of infrequent one-at-a-time customers, instead of the fear instilled by shopping with a mob of strangers who didn’t know that a mask wasn’t a substitute for social distancing.
I was lucky- even though I agonised. My mother was not only in the most vulnerable group, but she also has a weekly methotrexate injection for her arthritis. That makes her immunocompromised. Realising the danger, the local doctor’s surgery sent out a plastic clad nurse every week by car to mitigate her chronic risk. The nurse sternly told my mum that she wasn’t to have any in-person contact whatsoever. I didn’t have the heart to stop her going down to the shop once a day. The risks were minimal, after all, and it was convenient having weekly updates from the nurse, as to the real story of what was happening with COVID at the local hospital. We got priority access to the by-then in-short-supply and rationed weekly online deliveries through our local supermarket.
But many during COVID weren’t so lucky. Mother’s with their children, technically homeless, but housed in emergency one-room accommodation were told to stay put. People in cities, kept enclosed in claustrophobic conditions, whilst the one thing which would have been a real difference- the shutting down of the primary vector for the disease in those early months, public transport, was never even considered. When the only healthy young people dying in droves, other than hospital nurses, are physically fit bus drivers with no comorbidities in their thirties, then that should have told the powers that be, exactly how the virus was finding new sources of food.
A few brave souls in the scientific and medical communities did publish a declaration of a saner means of navigating the pandemic which was far more reflective of views within the scientific community in general, sticking their head above the parapet to risk the censure of the self-same caution zealots who were by now advising the government. It’s a brave group of souls willing to publish the more general view, and risk the ad hominem damage to reputation sure to follow from standing up to the Dictatorship of the Small Minority. They called it the Great Barrington Declaration. It was largely ignored by the media, but here it is for the record: Great Barrington Declaration
One of the most disappointing things about the whole episode is that, in many ways, here in the UK, is it’s been a repeat of Brexit. I don’t understand the certitude of so many in the public arena, or generally- even close friends and family members have come down with a particular disease of bias related to COVID, or at least the lockdowns. People fell into one of two categories- either the wilfully dubious and rebellious towards even the most common sense and basic restrictions, or an absolute and certain conviction in the dire warnings of the totally unrepresentative experts hand-picked by a media hoping to boost their ratings and confirm their own biases. I could quote Bertrand Russell “One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.”
Perhaps having read him, makes one forewarned and forearmed. I went from being far more concerned than most, to guarded caution, to frustration with a media narrative which was trying to scare people into submission. Most of all, I didn’t go out of my way to find evidence which supported my position, quite the opposite. One can be quite assured that one is on the road to truth when one becomes less certain of one’s convictions with each passing step. The thrill of finding a piece of evidence which directly refutes your presuppositions is in many ways more satisfying than that which supports it.
One of the easiest way to spot those who are heavily under the influence of anchor biases is by watching to see whether their gospel is daily new cases and R numbers alone. One of the first things any fool learns when examining data professionally is that you need a consistent source of data collection over time. That means that your sampling method needs to be the same throughout. With the number of new daily cases detected each day massively inflated over time by improved testing capacity and better access to tests for those who are more asymptomatic, daily new cases was and is perhaps the worst single source of data to rely upon, although it should not be ignored completely.
Far better look to total hospitalisations and deaths, as well as excess mortality figures. Even the hospitalisation numbers have to be taken with a degree of caution, because, as more critical and serious cases free up capacity and hospitalisation becomes less a matter of life and death triage, there is a danger that this newly freed up resources will be allocated to people who only need short-term access to a breathing mask. Opinion polls show strong support for a temporary lengthening of remaining restrictions to ensure permanent reopening, but how many people labour under the misconception that our current straights are quite serious? By new daily cases, one might assume that the situation is about half as serious as in January, but in January hospitalisations peaked at 39,000, whereas only last week they stood at 1,400.
But perhaps, the most disappointing aspect of COVID, is that the country seems to be making the same mistakes it made about Brexit. Cosmopolitan liberals still believe that they lost the vote because people who voted for Leave didn’t get the economic argument- or even worse that it was all motivated by some deeply held animus towards foreigners. They were wrong about both counts.
They did get the economic argument but simply weren’t beneficiaries of trade with Europe in any tangible real ways. Most accepted that there would be some disruption to trade and even permanent loss, but suspected that the doom and gloom forecasts were overblown, as has subsequently been borne out. And they weren’t really against foreigners in any hateful or individually antagonistic way, it was simply that they refused to didn’t want to see their culture and communities displaced any further by incoming mass migration. You see people weren’t asking them what they cared about, what mattered to them.
And it’s the same now. Because most people want to protect the vulnerable, it’s the reason behind the still continuing support for some restrictions, as well as protecting the NHS and the overweening caution of a few under thirties who have not yet had access to the vaccines. But nobody has bothered to ask our older and senior citizens what they actually want.
You can tell from the pubs. There are clear divisions by class and by age. Generally, most of the young are working there. Most of the drinking customers are at least in their forties, with many a grey hair to be spotted. Generally, if the upper middle classes are there at all, it is for a sit-down meal, rather than for purely social drinking purposes. They have ample social opportunities through their home life, their ample ability to entertain with their spacious accommodations and can maintain social contact through rich and rewarding professional lives. Many are not so fortunate.
Most don’t realise the fatalistic approach adopted by many older people with more tenuous points of social contact, because they just haven’t asked. For many, the risk of death is preferable to the shutting down of all human social interaction. Years ago, after my dad’s second bout of cancer in which a thyroid removal left him somewhat more vulnerable to health risks, his doctor told my mum that he was often reluctant to tell older patients that they should stop drinking, smoking or eating unhealthily. To his mind, there was something obscene about telling people living under the shadow of mortality to strip out much of the remaining simple pleasure in life.
Everybody is operating under the assumption that they are acting in the interests of not killing gran. Nobody has stopped to ask her whether she really wants to avoid seeing her grandchildren, or live alone in isolation. At the same time, there is a growing sentiment that just because some people are unwilling to get the vaccine, the rest of us shouldn’t be held hostage, or subject to never-ending restrictions.
Many accept that taking the vaccine is a matter of personal choice, but as it becomes more apparent that COVID deaths are almost exclusively restricted older people who have refused the vaccine there is a growing swell of resentment building. People have put their lives on hold for long enough and patience is wearing thin.
One of the reasons for the seemingly lackadaisical chaos of early COVID planning and response which occurred in many countries in the West was for one simple reason. Lockdowns were never a part of any pandemic planning for the simple reason that almost all the experts agreed that it simply wasn’t possible to keep people cooped up for any real length of time. The plan in most scenarios involved triaging the situation until natural herd immunity was reached. Depending upon your point of view the fact that they were able to frighten and guilt people into compliance should be a source of fear, anxiety and pride. Pride because most people were willing to voluntarily self-restrict. Fear and anxiety because of just how easily we were cowed.
Like almost all of my comments, this is free to view and comment on my substack:
Thanks very much for this historical review and analysis.
The COVID-19 epidemic exists, as a novel and particularly destructive part of the vitamin D deficiency pandemic, because the public and governments are guided by experts - most MDs and essentially all epidemiologists, immunologists, virologists and public health officials - who are flying completely blind because they do not understand the immune system’s complete reliance on adequate (50ng/ml 125nmol/L) circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (hereafter 25OHD). These levels, as measured in blood tests, are required for full, rapid and well-regulated (no pro-inflammatory cytokine storm) innate and adaptive immune responses. In the absence of plenty of high-elevation sun exposure on unprotected white skin (which raises skin cancer risk) and/or robust D3 supplementation above what most MDs regard as necessary or even safe, 25OHD levels are typically between 5 and 25ng/ml.
The crucial research articles these experts and interested lay-folk need to read or broadly understand are linked to and summarised here: What every MD should know about vitamin D and the immune system, COVID-19, sepsis, Kawasaki disease, Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome etc. - however, very few know these things (URL: vitamindstopscovid.info/05-mds/ ) including 0.125mg 5000IU D3 / day (70kg bodyweight) being needed for long-term repletion, this being too slow for emergency repletion, bolus D3 being better and single dose oral 1mg calcifediol (which 25OHD) being urgently needed for all people suffering from sepsis, Kawasaki disease, Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome, severe influenza and of course COVID-19, since it raises 25OHD levels safely over 50ng/ml in 4 hours.
Before discussing how humanity got into this self-inflicted catastrophe of weakened and overly-inflammatory immune responses, global viral pandemic - and the at least equally destructive vaccines, lockdowns and masks (and suppress or deny the possibility of early treatment) response - here are some observations on the perversion of science into rampant scientism as the tool of choice for corralling and bludgeoning the masses into succumbing to the will of those who think of themselves as the most enlightened saviours of humanity.
André De Lorenzi, MD, tweeted
What characterizes good science is the eternal uncertainty and a permanently open mind to new ideas. The annulment of divergent thinking is the antimatter of science. This has another name and the History has already taught us how it ends.
J. Roman tweeted
It’s the same as the integration between government and organized “religion” in the past. Organized “science” ironically has taken the latter’s place. It’s misused to exert control, to define “reality” & to exclude heretics. Another Great Awakening & Enlightenment 2.0 are needed.
Science, in the idealised model of Karl Popper, is a process which generates better and better - and perhaps perfect - explanations of Nature, faster and more reliably than any other process. However, a lot of science is not ready for prime-time use as a reliable explanation of what is happening, or how to respond, since it it is a work in progress and/or corrupted externally or by its own paradigmatic echo chamber (Thomas Khun’s more realistic sociological model of how professional scientists actually work).
Proof AKA TRUTH is for mathematics and law. In Popperian science, there is no such thing - just the generation and survival of explanatory hypotheses, the veracity of which should be tested only by their ability at elegantly explaining, and ideally predicting, actual observations. In the Kuhnian model, they are also, unwittingly, tested against the prevailing orthodoxy by which physical observations are interpreted to generate the mental models of reality in the minds of actual scientists.
Science, notoriously, progresses amoeba-like, thrusting out pseudopods in unpredictable directions and dragging in the rest of the body after or, occasionally, retreating in disorder.
People want good info on health and look to SCIENCE for this, since it is the best bet. They are perplexed to find debate, controversy etc. amongst the Experts. Big Pharma corrupts research & academic publishing Vitamin D acceptance delayed by Big Pharma following the Disinformation Playbook
The vitamin D pandemic began when humans moved out of Africa and far north of the equator ca. 50,000 years ago. It worsened for many closer to the equator with the advent of clothing and better housing. Recent contributors include (perfectly wise) avoidance of high-UV-B sun exposure, migration of people with melanin-rich skin far from the equator and cultural practices, especially for Muslim women, of extreme sun avoidance all year round. There is very little vitamin D3 in food, so the choice is between robust supplementation, dangerous levels of UV-B all year round or the deficiency which cripples most people today. (5000IU/day = 1 gram every 22 years and pharma grade D3 costs USD$2.50 a gram ex-factory.)
48 MDs and researchers tried in 2008 to alert all other MDs to the need for ~50ng/ml 25OHD: D*Action. Most MDs and all governments ignore this advice. Quraishi et al.'s 2014 graph, above, should have been celebrated the world over, and promoted by all MDs, as apparently incontrovertible evidence (indistinguishable from “proof”, though real scientists don’t go there) of the need for all people from newborns to the the elderly to attain at least such levels. Yet hardly anyone knows about it.
Stagi et al. 2015 reported on severe vitamin D deficiency in children with Kawasaki disease, like MIS-C, an extreme pro-inflammatory immune dysregulation condition triggered by prior infection, including even mild or asymptomatic COVID-19. The patients were 21 girls and 58 boys, average age 5.8 years. Their average 25OHD levels were 9.2ng/ml, while age-matched controls averaged 23.3ng/ml. In the patients who developed coronary artery abnormalities, the average 25OHD level was 4.9ng/ml. This should have become known to every pediatrician in the world within a year or two.
Yet almost every pediatrician treating these children has no clue about vitamin D. I have written to dozens of them and the one MD who replied wrote that he couldn’t believe vitamin D was involved.
Immune cells’ need for 25OHD is for autocrine (within the cell) and paracrine (to nearby cells) signaling, which has nothing to do with the one hormonal (circulating in the bloodstream) signaling function of the vitamin D compounds, a very low level of 1,25OHD to regulate calcium-bone metabolism.
Even the best vitamin D researchers regularly fail to delineate this and use confused and confusing terminology which makes it difficult for anyone to understand how immune cell needs for 25OHD are totally different from the lower level the kidneys need to produce their very low level of circulating, hormonal, 1,25OHD.
MDs’ job is to advise and treat according to the best available knowledge. They have spectacularly failed to do this with vitamin D. If they had done their job, by now, many or most people would have 50ng/ml 25OHD and SARS-CoV-2 would not spread as a pandemic and would rarely cause serious harm or death.
“Vaccinating” anyone, let alone whole populations, with experimental, narrowly focused, highly problematic mRNA or adenovirus vector “vaccines” without first getting everyone’s 25OHD levels up to what their immune systems need is the height of madness.
This global madness - now to the point of governments encouraging peer-group pressure to bully people into accepting these poorly tested gene therapies, which are known to harm and kill - is our current predicament.
The only way out is to educate MDs. The primary barriers to suppressing COVID-19 and to attaining numerous other health benefits are in the minds of most doctors. There’s a mountain of epidemiological and treatment trial evidence in favour of vitamin D repletion. See vdmeta.com and aminothetheory.com/cv19/ for the refs for the following:
However, ordinary D3 is too slow to help people who are suffering KD, MIS-C, sepsis or severe COVID-19. A single oral dose of 0.014mg / kg bodyweight calcifediol will replete them in 4 hours: Dr Sunil Wimalawansa (with whom I collaborate) linkedin.com/posts/sunilwimalawansa_multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-mis .
I hope that grassroots action such as pointing MDs to vitamindstopscovid.info/05-mds/ and them seeing patients recover rapidly with ~1mg calcifediol, will bring about the revolution we urgently need. Hopefully this will happen faster than the ~50 years it took for most MDs to accept the necessity of washing and disinfecting their hands: wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis .
Hi Geary (Geary_Johansen2020) . If everyone in the UK had done what you did - supplemented D3 robustly in early 2020 - COVID-19 would almost certainly now be a minor concern and the whole country would be happier, healthier and more productive than ever before.
I disagree with your focus on vaccination and your support of the (poncily named) Great Barrington Declaration which advocates selective protection (vaccines? better treatment? ivermectin?) of vulnerable people while letting the disease rip through the rest of the population, without regard to their mainly disastrously low vitamin D levels, to attain herd immunity and so reduce R0 below 1.0.
Average vitamin D levels (25-hydroxyvitamin D in the blood, produced from D3 over days to a week in the liver) in the UK are disastrously low, though in early July they are rising towards their summer-autumn peak, in which even the average for people with unpigmented skin is half or less of the 50ng/ml (125nmol/L) their immune systems need to function properly. Sutherland et al. 2020: sci-hub.se/10.1016/j.clnu.2020.11.019 .
UK government inaction on this is egregiously lacking, and their advisers, NICE et al. are reluctant to admit they were wrong to advise only 0.01mg 400IU D3 a day supplementation, when the average need is for 0.125mg 5000IU/day (70kg non-obese bodyweight).
This 400IU/day recommendation or similar is used all around the world and results both from an inadequate 25OHD target of 20 or 30ng/ml and from the US Institute of Medicine’s 1133 page 2010 report, in which they completely fluffed the most important calculation - the Recommended Daily Allowance (RDA) for D3 so 97.5% of adults have >20ng/ml 25OHD. They used the variance of the average 25OHD levels of multiple studies when they should have used the variance of the 25OHD levels of every individual in those studies: Link to Veuglers et al. 2014 at: vitamindstopscovid.info/01-supp/#iom .
An RDA for D3 makes no sense due to wide variation in bodyweight. The best approach to vitamin D3 supplemental quantities is as a ratio of bodyweight, with a higher ratio for those suffering from obesity: vitamindstopscovid.info/01-supp/ .
In mid-2020, with the almost original SARS-CoV2 variant, the summer rise in UK average 25OHD levels strongly suppressed disease severity, which reduced harm and deaths, but more importantly reduced average total viral shedding, and so reduced transmission rates to below 1.0 per infected person. Adapted from Zahra Raisi-Estabragh et al. 2020 academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa095/5859581 and UK COVID-19 hospitalisation data: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare:
So the pandemic wound down and would likely have disappeared by now except for two things: Firstly, winter came along, average vitamin D levels (circulating 25OHD) dropped, severity and so transmission rose (see notes below). Secondly the Alpha variant out-competed the previous variants by being more transmissible (at least in that environment where many of the most vulnerable had already been infected with an earlier variant). The real peak in hospitalisation, harm and death was in December to February, and is shown below, not above.
(Transmission is primarily driven by low vitamin D levels increasing viral shedding, though to some extent low vitamin D makes people more likely to be infected from a particular level of viral insult. Summer daytime UV levels reduce transmission outdoors by neutralizing viruses in aerosols and fomites - on surfaces - but this has little effect since most transmission occurs in buildings and vehicles. Outdoors temperature and humidity probably makes little difference, but winter indoors and in-vehicle atmospheres of low humidity, with lots of re-circulation, surely play a significant role in the seasonality of COVID-19, common colds, flu etc. In dry air, tiny droplets evaporate to bare virus particles which do not fall via gravity to the ground for hours or days.)
In recent months, with significant “vaccination” levels, lockdowns and rising 25OHD levels, in the UK, even the more infectious Alpha B1.1.7 variant had an R0 of less then 1.0. Its prevalence halved every 4 weeks. However, as we can see from Alex Selby’s analysis sonorouschocolate.com, by mid-May 2021, its prevalence was overtaken by the Delta B1.617.2 variant, doubling every 10 days.
We know from brilliant work by Zahradnik et al. Jan 2020 vitamindstopscovid.info/#zahradnik that SARS-CoV-2 can and probably will evolve much more effective variants, where effective means more transmissible. The mutations which increase this will generally increase disease severity as well, for instance by making the spike protein have a 640 times greater affinity (electrostatic force of binding) for the ACE-2 receptor compared to the mid-2020 variants. Alpha has 3.5 times the affinity of those earlier variants.
In the UK, Alpha is retracing the decline a year ago of earlier variants, but Delta is rising like a rocket: ourworldindata.org
This is with 62.4% of UK adults (18 and over) having had 2 “vaccine” doses and only 15% not having had at least one. Most concerning is that this ramp-up is occurring with close to maximum vitamin D levels. The government and their advisers are oblivious to this, but they know that for whatever reasons, COVID-19 seasonality is very strong in their country. So they are now admitting the current “vaccination” plan cannot contain the disease - maybe not in summer, which is alarming, and certainly not in winter. So they are planning a booster injection (or two??) ASAP, starting with those over 70 and then for those over 50.
Everyone can now plainly see that vaccines will not save us from COVID-19 in the current situation of perilously low average 25OHD levels.
Once you understand the research I link to and summarise at vitamindstopscovid.info/05-mds/ I believe you will agree with me that nothing is more important than repleting everyone’s vitamin D levels to the 50ng/ml 125nmol/L their immune systems need to function properly. This should start, immediately, with bolus D3 for the vulnerable to get their levels up in a week or so. These include the elderly, police and emergency responders, all healthcare and transport workers and all those institutionalised in hospitals, care homes and prison - inmates and staff.
Everyone who is ill with anything at all - especially COVID-19, sepsis etc. - needs their 25OHD boosted as a matter of hourly to a day urgency. If calcifediol is not available (see vitamindstopscovid.info/04-calcifediol/ for good Spanish and Italian prescription sources and US, Canadian and Australian non-prescription online ordering sources - .au to all countries too) then bolus D3 should be used.
No-one knows how Delta, Gamma and surely future variants will respond to a population in which the great majority of people, from newborns to the elderly, have 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels generally at or above 50ng/ml. Maybe the current and future variants will be suppressed into being minor concerns, due to lower average viral shedding, with serious harm and death being rare events once all people are treated with calcifediol, ivermectin, vitamin C, magnesium and zinc to start with, and only with prednisolone and dexamethasone if necessary. These anti-inflammatory drugs raise glucose levels and suppress all immune responses, causing fungal disease in 13.5% of COVID-19 ICU patients, killing half of them:
Maybe even good vitamin D levels, with sufficient magnesium and zinc - and (long-term) sufficient omega-3 fatty acids - will be insufficient to suppress future COVID-19 variants without masks, lockdowns and/or real vaccines or the current mRNA / adenovirus gene therapy “vaccines”. In that case, we really do have a problem and such measures may need to be introduced for everyone.
However, we are not at that point yet, and may never be.
There is a tendency among those who, quite reasonably, object to lockdowns and current “vaccines” to believe or promulgate an avoidant view of COVID-19’s seriousness - the Great Barrington Declaration being a prime example.
Ideally, COVID-19 infection should be a non-event for everyone with good nutrition and no co-morbidities. This will never be the case for the entire population, even with good nutrition. Obesity increases COVID-19 problems in many ways, not least due to ectopic adipocytes in the alveolar tissues of the lungs (fat cells which don’t belong there), which express the ACE-2 receptor and can emit pro-inflammatory cytokines.
There are numerous potential medium- and long-term complications from COVID-19 - including in babies, children and adolescents who we are rightly very wary of subjecting to vaccination, at least with the currently widely used experimental mRNA and adenovirus gene therapies. It is a mistake to downplay these risks and known harms, or the degree to which the disease will spread in the constantly replenished younger generations in the future, in the absence of proper vitamin D levels.
Population-scale vitamin D repletion to 50ng/ml or more, on average, can be done with robust D3 supplementation, without the need for medical monitoring, tests, etc. for most people. It won’t necessarily solve all our problems, but it involves no drugs, and is a simple, safe, and highly beneficial step which should be pursued with wartime-like urgency, since all other measures are less effective, socially and economically more costly and involve greater risks.
This was a wonderful essay Geary, thanks for sharing.
Most kind. It appears a theory I read about in a short book by Daisy Christodoulou entitled Seven Myths About Education- that of deliberate practice- might actually have something to it.
Amusing; the author writes:
“If we are not careful, then the ‘War on Covid,’ like the ‘War on Drugs,’ or the ‘War on Terror,’ stands to become the newest open-ended proxy by which an entire scheme of social, state, and market relations must now be marshalled in perpetuity.”
He seems to think that there is still some way to avoid a totalitarian police state as dreary as any that have gone before and as dreary as any that have imagined in fiction. In fact the US quite naturally matured into an overt police state in 2001 and into a typically corrupt totalitarian regime in 2008.
I guess when someone like the author has lived one’s life as a good servant of the monster imagining what life is like on the outside the monster’s den is difficult.
So I think I got the gist of what you are saying.You are saying you think we should supplement with Vitamin D. I’m not sure that is what you are saying though, it may require further explanation on your part.
Hi D.Bonhoeffer, individually and collectively it is obvious that we should get our circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels up to ca. 50ng/ml or more so our immune systems can work properly, subject to other factors including other nutrients.
Supplementing with D3 is the best way to achieve this in the long term, since there is so little D3 in food and UV-B skin exposure all year round is impractical for most people, damages DNA and so raises cancer risk. Long-term supplementation with calcifediol would work too, but it is more expensive.
However, in the short-term - in the hours or perhaps a day or so in which medical emergencies need to be treated decisively - ordinary daily D3 supplemental quantities raise 25OHD levels far too slowly. Bolus (high dose, at once, such as 7.5mg 300,000IU) D3 is a much better approach, but this still relies on liver conversion to turn it into the circulating 25OHD immune cells need.
Oral (or perhaps injected / intravenous) calcifediol (pharma name for 25OHD) raises circulating 25OHD safely over 50ng/ml in 4 hours, with a single dose of ~1mg for most adults - 0.014mg per kg bodyweight. Half this would probably work too, but the quantity is small and since the person’s life hangs in the balance, it is best to do a proper job of it in case there are absorption problems.
What I write here is no replacement for reading the research articles linked to from vitamindstopscovid.info/05-mds/, including Castillo et al. 2020 (Cordoba, Spain) where a single oral dose of 0.532mg calcifediol for hospitalised patients reduced ICU admissions from 50% to 2% and deaths from 8% to zero.
A major reason MDs seem to ignore or not know at all about vitamin D and the immune system is that it is “too simple”. A great deal of biology, illness and medical treatment is exceedingly complex, and MDs devote their lives to learning all they can about these complexities, and navigating all the competing arguments, risks, lack of ideal knowledge of what is occurring in the patient etc. It is a very challenging field! They are also wary of over-hyped nutrients and are constantly being schmoozed by Big Pharma with questionable claims about new (patented, high-profit) drugs and vaccines.
Another likely reason why MDs are not fully informed of the importance of vitamin D is that giving healthy D3 daily quantities at a time of intense illness will not boost levels in the hours or day or so which is really required. Also, MDs are advised that only small D3 intakes such as 0.02mg 800IU D3 / day are necessary and desirable. Those standards were set only to provide the lower level (~20ng/ml) which is sufficient for the kidneys to maintain a very low level of circulating hormonal 1,25OHD for calcium-bone metabolism.
MDs have been generally misinformed about the long-term 25OHD levels above which toxicity might occur - especially in the UK. 150ng/ml 375nmol/L is the level above which toxicity may become a problem. This is very much harder to attain than 50ng/ml due to the self-limiting effects of 24-hydroxylase enzymes which reduce 25OHD levels at a rate proportional to those levels. (That said, many people suffering from psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, MS etc. benefit from higher 25OHD levels than this. In the Coimbra protocol this is achieved with careful medical supervision.)
Generally supplemental D3 is what everyone needs.
Anyone who has not been robustly supplementing with D3 for months who is sick - especially with COVID-19, MIS, sepsis etc. urgently needs their circulating 25OHD boosted. Bolus D3 is good, but calcifediol is faster and so better.
I believe that if MDs had the experience of treating patients with calcifediol (or read of MDs in their own country doing this) with results along the lines of Castillo et al, then they would fully acquaint themselves with the immune system’s need for circulating 25OHD and come to understand vitamin D based autocrine and paracrine signaling. (Even among vitamin-D aware MDs, few have even heard these terms - but this is how the vitamin D compounds are used in numerous cell types.) Then they would understand the pertinent research on vitamin D and recommend people in general supplement robustly with D3.
I see calcifediol for clinical emergency 25OHD repletion being essential to saving people from harm and death right now - and so greatly reducing the impact of COVID-19 infection. I also see it as the key to bringing MDs, immunologists, virologists, epidemiologists and public health officials - and the public - to the understanding of vitamin D we all need to be much healthier in general. This same understanding will, with luck (depending on how the variants evolve), enable population-wide increases in 25OHD levels which will suppress the COVID-19 pandemic to the point where we don’t need masks, lockdowns, vaccines or the mRNA / adenovirus treatments currently referred to as vaccines (except perhaps for a subset of the population who are at very high risk of harm from COVID-19, even with good 25OHD levels).
If you look at the “Health Problems and D” sidebar at Henry Lahore’s vastly extensive vitamindwiki.com (Henry is a retired Boeing electronics engineer who I collaborate with) you will see over 100 diseases listed. If you think of vitamin D as an over-hyped little vitamin sitting between C and E (both of which have been over-hyped to a significant degree) then you may turn your attention elsewhere.
However, if you have seen the Quraishi graph, understand that each individual immune cell largely or entirely relies on vitamin D based autocrine and paracrine signaling to respond to its changing circumstances, have read the Stagi et al. Kawasaki disease observations, and the Castillo et al. calcifediol randomised clinical trial - and especially if you understand the guts of the dense McGregor et al. work on Th1 regulatory lymphocytes getting stuck in their pro-inflammatory state due to lack of 25OHD . . . then you will realise the importance of good 25OHD levels for the health of every person. The same goes for our companion and agricultural animals, though the latter are usually well supplied, since the great majority of D3 and calcifediol production is for them, rather than humans.
Regarding COVID-19, McGregor et al. 2020 is absolutely essential reading. It is a dense article and my summary is easier to understand.
Returning to the very large number of illnesses which seem to be caused, at least in part, by inadequate 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, I estimate that population-wide repletion to 50ng/ml or more would reduce general ill-health very significantly, such as by 20 to 50%.
Therein lies a problem for the medical profession, hospitals and the pharmaceutical industry. D3 and calcifediol are low-profit nutrients - not even drugs - and are produced by a handful of companies who are not part of Big Pharma. They are difficult to produce, involving specialised chemistry and exotic high powered iron-doped mercury vapour lamps for the UV-B light which is required to open up a carbon ring.
The vitamin D repletion which will benefit humanity so much will reduce healthcare spending very significantly - and so the income and profits of doctors and numerous corporations.
Worrying evidence of pernicious likely future, permanent, social changes comes from Economist polling of the UK population:
According to this research, 19% of the population want nighttime curfews forever, no matter what happens with COVID-19. 40% wants masks, forever. Likewise 35% travel quarantine and 26% “closing casinos and clubs”.
I learnt this from today’s daily email dispatch from https://lockdownsceptics.org
The articles I receive by email have not mentioned vitamin D but a search of the site reveals other articles, at least last year, which do mention it.
The commonly accepted levels of vitamin D are a joke. They were agreed upon a century ago or more, when the goal was to prevent rickets. Nothing was known then about the role of vitamin D in immune health or inflammation and nothing about bone health beyond gross deficiencies like rickets. It was known then to be fat-soluble. But the significance of that fact was not understood.